As we prepare to vote in a historic presidential election—one that, for only the second time in our nation’s history, features a woman’s name at the top of the ticket—I’m eager to explore the significance of gender ON the ballot and gender AT the ballot box.

Barring unforeseen developments, we are heading toward the largest gender gap on record in a presidential election. Interestingly, this widening gap seems to be driven more by the man leading one of the tickets than by the woman leading the other.

Our GOTB research indicates that, in general, women are not more likely to vote for a candidate simply because of her gender. Political party affiliation remains the dominant factor. In other words, we shouldn’t expect Republican-leaning or Independent women to support Kamala Harris just because she’s a woman.

In this election, it all hinges on Trump and whether these women will back a candidate they find personally distasteful, solely because they are aligned with the Republican Party. Think of these voters as the Nikki Hayley supporters during the GOP primary. Will they follow her lead and begrudgingly support Trump or will they follow the example of former Rep. Liz Cheney, a Republican, who just last week unequivocally endorsed Kamala Harris? During a speech at Duke University, Cheney stressed that simply not voting or writing in a third-party candidate is not enough. She explained: “As a conservative, someone who cares deeply about the Constitution, I have thought long and hard about this. And because of the danger Donald Trump represents, not only will I not be voting for him, but I will be voting for Kamala Harris.”

The answer just may well determine whether we will have a woman in the White House this January.